Tag: Map Analysis

Why the Titans… Might Beat NYXL.

The Titans’ stage was full of weak opponents but they finally get to try their hand at a good team again.. After 11 grueling weeks, we’ve finally reached the Stage 1 playoff finals where the Vancouver Titans will take on the New York Excelsior. Wait… this is Stage 2? How long was I sleeping for???

Control Win 72%81%

I can already tell this is going to be the closest match we’ve seen in a long time and after watching the Titans roll mid table teams all stage, it’s kind of nerve wracking. None of these maps heavily favour either team. We saw the TItans opt to start on Oasis against the Fuel so there’s a good chance we could go back there. While I think they have played slightly better on Lijiang Tower this stage, clearly they are comfortable on Oasis.

Hybrid Win %63%95%
Blizzard World0-22-0

We messed up the Dallas preview, in the playoffs the match order reverts to Hybrid before Assault unlike the regular season to promote less draws. Statistically the Titans should be more favoured here than on any other map type, but this one could depend on who wins Control. While both teams have had success on King’s Row, the Excelsior have looked better than the Titans have on Eichenwalde. Oh, also the Titans have access to Blizzard World, which NYXL doesn’t seem able to buy a win on. Blizzard World is a stage that has many avenues of attack and it really favours aggressive styles of play like we see from the Titans. Regardless of who wins Control, the Titans can take this even without their choice of map, so they’ll need to bring their A game from the start as they are the favourites in these middle maps.

Assault Win %75%95%

The Titans are the slight favourites here, edging out New York, but very closely in actual map record, they’ve simply played more matches. Prior to today, NYXL should have been expected to pick Temple of Anubis, but after the trouncing that the Bumper Boys gave the Fuel, the Excelsior may have changed their minds. This one is too close to call, but I’d expect the Titans to have the advantage because aggressive play style works well on dual control point maps.

Escort Win %87%76%

Here’s another close one. This match is so close on paper, it’s going to be so exciting to watch. The Titans have been a consistently better team who play like they haven’t had to use their full power yet and NYXL has been playing like they are finally back to full strength. If the Titans do have another gear, they should take this match and clear a path to the Stage 2 finals. Regardless of outcome, it’s going to be insane to watch this many skilled players in the same match.

Why the Titans will Beat the Fuel (Pt 2): A Map Analysis

The Stage 2 playoffs have begun! With this stage playoffs, there is a rule change. In the Stage 1 finals, we saw that the loser would get to pick the next map, this stage that rule is applied to all rounds of the playoffs, so we get to look at every map and consider what Fuel might do and how the Titans fare on those maps.

Control Win %71%86%

The Dallas Fuel’s only loss on control this stage has come from their loss to the Titans on Lijiang Tower. If the change has included the finals approach of a random first map, Control could be a toss up. If however, they let the higher seed pick the first map, then I think the Titans would jump at the chance to open the post-season with a win on Lijiang Tower. Yes, the Titans have lost on Busan this stage, but it’s their only loss on Busan all season. All map types should slightly favour the Titans, but if the Fuel are going to push the Titans to their limits, this is a must win for them.

Assault Win %36%86%

Oh… that’s not a good look for the Fuel. First we saw what may be the closest of the four map types, and immediately after we see what a Francisco Goya painting of the Overwatch League could look like. This should be as close to a guaranteed win as possible. If the Fuel win the first map, the Titans get to pick their favourite, but if the Titans take the Control map, there is no solid option for the Fuel to try and turn things around. This could get out of hand quickly if the Fuel go down 0-2 by the half time.

Hybrid Win %71%100%
King’s Row3-03-0
Blizzard World1-12-0

The Fuel are a lot better on Hybrid than they are on Assault… unfortunately the Titans went perfect this stage. In a vacuum, the best chance the Fuel might have is to put their best map on and try to outskill the Titans, but Vancouver hasn’t lost on King’s Row all year.

Escort Win %57%86%

If this does go to map 4, I look forward to seeing Hooreg EMP a wall on Junkertown with nobody in sight again, but most likely we won’t even get this far. This will be a 3-0, 3-1 at worst, but after Control, there will be no avenues for the Fuel to successfully attack the Titans with.

Why the Titans will Beat the Dynasty: A Map Analysis

By the end of Stage 2, the Titans will have played the Seoul Dynasty three times and if the remainder of the OWL stage goes how we expect it to on the Ready Set Pwn discord, there’s a good chance the Titans will play the Dynasty in the playoffs again. It’s a good thing the Titans have performed really, really well against the Dynasty historically.

The Dynasty have had a mixed stage, partially due to their very hard schedule. Seoul has lost to the Gladiators, the Titans, and are about to play the Titans again. Fortunately for them, all they had to do was beat the teams they had to beat and they will make the playoffs, and as expected, it comes down to the last game of the stage where the Dynasty will take on the Spark. That’s getting a little ahead of ourselves though, let’s start with if they have a chance against the Vancouver Titans, first.

xDynastyTitansDynasty All YearTitans All Year
Control Win %71%80%56%78%

Statistically, this is pretty close. Before the stage started, I surmised that this could be the Titans hardest match of the stage, and so far it looks like it might be. In addition, the Dynasty are in a win-and-in situation, where either one of their final two matches won would likely involve a playoff appearance, so expect their best.

xDynastyTitansDynasty All YearTitans All Year
Assault Win %40%100%54%87%
Anubis0-11-0 2 – 2 – 14-2

Oh, maybe I spoke a little too soon. This one is considerably less close, and if the Dynasty are going to take this match, they’ll need to take one of these middle matches where the Titans excel.

xDynastyTitansDynasty All YearTitans All Year
Hybrid Win %60%100%64%94%
Blizzard World1-01-01-01-0

Again, less close, but still better. The Dynasty is a pretty underrated team, they’ve had some good showings the teams they should beat and only lost to teams ahead of them in the standings. They’re a very solid team and they should be aknowleged for more than just upsetting NYXL in the playoffs, they have a lot of good players and can roster two above average teams.

xDynastyTitansDynasty All YearTitans All Year
Escort Win %80%80%57%73%

This match should be pretty tense the whole way through, the games will be close and the wins will be hard fought for. With the Titans good record of play against the Dynasty (2-0 in matches, 7-1 in maps) it’s hard not to give them the edge here, but it’ll be a tough series for both teams, hopefully the Dynasty can recover for their next day match against the Spark, leading to another great Titans/Dynasty playoff first round matchup.

The official RSP prediction: 3-1 Titans, either they go up 3-0 and donate Junkertown, or the Dynasty wrestle away the Control map and the Titans put it in another gear and take the win on Junkertown, they did win here with Hooreg EMPing a wall, after all.

Why the Titans will Beat the Defiant: A Map Analysis

On May 3rd, the two Canadian Overwatch League teams will finally face off for the first time. It took long enough, also Toronto kind of blew it this stage. They could have been in the mix for the playoffs, but they blew some games against mid table teams including getting reverse swept by the Boston Uprising.

After a respectable first stage, their quality of play metrics have dropped drastically, including nearly all their map types going down in win%. Weirdly, their Assault win% actually went up a little, but it’s mitigated by their 0% winrate on Escort maps, 20% on Hybrid, and 33% on Control. Let’s make some tables and see if there’s any way this isn’t a 4-0.

DefiantTitansDefiant All YearTitans All Year
Control Win %33%80%53%78%

Ok, Titans are good and Defiant lose a lot. Their control map wins this stage have come over the Washington Justice and the Boston Uprising, two teams who won’t make the playoffs and one while getting reverse swept. 2-0 Titans win, Stitch might start, he’s started on Oasis before, it’s a pretty good map for DPS.

DefiantTitansDefiant All YearTitans All Year
Assault Win %60%100%42%87%

The Defiant are actually pretty good on Assault by comparison, unfortunately they’re an actual trash can team when playing on Anubis.

DefiantTitansDefiant All YearTitans All Year
Hybrid Win %20%100%35%94%
King’s Row0-12-02 – 36-0

King’s Row are the Titans best map. Toronto has a 20% winrate this stage compared to the Titans 100% winrate. Titans win by map 3.

DefiantTitansDefiant All YearTitans All Year
Escort Win %0%80%42%73%

With Toronto so far behind, we will likely see Hooreg on Junkertown again, also maybe Bumper donates the Defiant their first map win on Escort. This is a huge mismatch, 4-0 potential in record time giving the Titans the longest win streak in OWL history.

Why the Titans Will Beat the Uprising: A Map Analysis

The Uprising are a team on the decline, this bodes well for the Titans. Boston won 3 regular season reverse sweeps in a row, with a quarterfinals loss to the Titans sprinkled in the middle, but they took a break from being good to lose to the Spark, a team the Titans 4-0’d. The Spark aren’t an elite team by any means, so the Uprising fell drastically in the rankings.

Are the Uprising actually a secretly bad team? Or was the Spark match simply an outlier?

Control Win %38%75%
Lijiang Tower0-2

This looks like it’s going to be a mismatch. Not only did the Titans 3-0 the Uprising with ease, they have kept the win train rolling, while the Uprising have stumbled recently. The Titans have never played on Lijiang Tower as themselves, but Lijiang is not a great spot for the Uprising.

Assault Win %50%85%

Another mismatch, the Titans are so good on assault and Paris is a great map for GOATS. We saw the Titans use a fun attack Symmetra composition on Paris against Houston, so let’s hope they do something like that again if Boston tries to avoid the GOATS mirror.

Hybrid Win %64%93%
King’s Row0-35-0

Boston is alright on Hybrid in general, but King’s Row is not their favourite place to be. With the Titans’ insane 5-0 record, this is looking grimmer and grimmer for the Uprising.

Escort Win %60%69%

This one might be close, but it could be too late for the Uprising. As usual, take the Titans win% on Escort with a grain of salt, they hate trying hard.

This looks like it could be an easy 3-1 win for the Titans, possibly even a 4-0. The Uprising are a team on the decline and the map pool favours the Titans heavily, this is also the second day of back to back matches for Boston. After they play the Spitfire, another solid team, they might be out of gas for the Titans. As well, if they try and stack their prep against the Spitfire as it’s the more likely win, they might just take the L against Vancouver and try to double up their efforts against the Spitfire if their goal is to make the playoffs.

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